DEADSTOCK

Sales and Profit Sensitivity

Next week, October and November, from listings, traffic, conversion and price

Forecast week Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026
Actual weeks to Oct 24, 2026 · cost rates from Aug and Sep 2026 · US dollars
Updated with data to Oct 24, 2026

Sales next week
Operating profit next week
Operating profit, October equivalent
Operating profit, November forecast

Weekly sales: the last 4 weeks, then the forecast

Solid bars are actual sales. Striped bars are the forecast, one full week per bar: next week and each week after it into November, each starting from the listings above plus any net new listings a week.

Where the money goes

Sales come in on the left. Each cost takes its share, and profit is what's left at the bottom right.

Change the forecast

Type a new figure, then press Recalculate. Changed boxes turn orange.

More inputs: total sessions, other channels, cost rates

Other channels, as a share of Amazon sales

Cost rates, as a share of item sales (Aug and Sep)

All the figures
Week Oct 25 to Oct 31 % of item salesOctober equivalentNovember forecast

Monthly recurring costs

From QuickBooks, Aug and Sep. Grey: operating costs. Pale red: interest and finance charges.

Change the list

Operating costs

Untick a line to leave it out, or type a new monthly amount, then press Recalculate. Weekly is monthly x 12 / 52.

InCostMonthlyWeekly
Accounting and bookkeeping
66600 · Sep charge: Aug $1,545.11 · Sep $1,545.11 · Oct to date $1,545.11
Employee wages
64100 · Sep charge: Aug $4,340.00 · Sep $4,340.00 · Oct to date $0.00
Open question: if this is Blake's own pay it belongs in owner distributions, not cost
Software: scanning (Captainscan)
62000 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $269.00 · Sep $519.00 · Oct to date $450.00
Software: repricing (Goaura)
62000 · Sep charge: Aug $297.00 · Sep $297.00 · Oct to date $0.00
Software: other subscriptions
62000 · each one's latest charge: Aug $220.33 · Sep $258.57 · Oct to date $238.92
Each subscription at its latest charge (Intuit in August is the same QuickBooks plan)
Phone and internet
66200 · each one's latest charge: Aug $288.15 · Sep $288.15 · Oct to date $220.40
Electricity and water
63200 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $350.80 · Sep $323.77 · Oct to date $290.27
Legal retainer
66500 · Sep charge: Aug $150.00 · Sep $150.00 · Oct to date $150.00
Business insurance
66400 · Sep charge: Aug $38.15 · Sep $38.15 · Oct to date $38.11
Vehicle fuel and repairs
65100 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $293.09 · Sep $219.85 · Oct to date $209.17
Business meals
65300 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $212.49 · Sep $259.08 · Oct to date $354.51
Office supplies
66100 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $442.40 · Sep $0.00 · Oct to date $393.40
Irregular; averaged
Bank charges
66300 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $321.04 · Sep $0.00 · Oct to date $130.00
Irregular; averaged
Business taxes and licences
66700 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $396.05 · Sep $437.05 · Oct to date $168.91
Annual and one-off filings; left out of the monthly run rate
Pest control
66800 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $0.00 · Sep $95.00 · Oct to date $0.00
Seen once (September); left out until it recurs
Total

Seen in Aug and Sep but not recurring, so not on the list:

  • Carry.com (Aug, $499): one-off
  • Keepa (Sep, $33.04): one-off

Interest and finance charges

InCostMonthlyWeekly
Credit card interest
68200 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $2,286.51 · Sep $2,378.34 · Oct to date $2,276.80
Private lender notes interest
68400 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $887.50 · Sep $887.50 · Oct to date $0.00
Bank and term loan interest
68100 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $163.46 · Sep $855.55 · Oct to date $185.17
Merchant advance finance charges
68300 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $2,040.85 · Sep $408.33 · Oct to date $0.00
Kapitus charges fell from $2,040.85 (Aug) to $408.33 (Sep) and none in October to date
Lender late fees
81000 · average of Aug and Sep: Aug $105.00 · Sep $129.00 · Oct to date $138.00
Total

Loan principal repayments aren't costs and aren't here. The debt schedule has them.

The 4 weeks to Oct 24, 2026 set the traffic, conversion, price and channel defaults. Aug and Sep set the cost rates. In each chart the dashed line is the default the forecast uses.

Item sales by channel, by week

$0$10k$20k$30k$40k$22,002Sep 27$27,399Oct 4$34,815Oct 11$32,530Oct 18AbeBookseBayAmazon

Amazon sessions per listing

Sessions in the week / Amazon's average offer count that week.

40.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.00Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Weekly63.15Default (4-wk mean)53.35

Default used: 53.35

Amazon conversion

Units ordered / sessions.

0.140%0.160%0.180%0.200%0.220%0.240%0.260%Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Default (4-wk mean)0.179%Weekly0.157%

Default used: 0.179%

Amazon price per unit

Ordered product sales / units ordered.

$13.40$13.60$13.80$14.00$14.20$14.40$14.60$14.80Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Default (4-wk mean)$13.71Weekly$13.54

Default used: $13.71

Amazon sessions

Sessions in the week (shown for context; the forecast uses sessions per listing).

800k900k1,000k1,100k1,200k1,300kSep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Weekly1,238,603Default (4-wk mean)997,258

Default used: 997,258

eBay share of Amazon sales

eBay order sales / Amazon ordered sales, same week.

2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Weekly7.6%Default (4-wk mean)6.6%

Default used: 6.6%

AbeBooks share of Amazon sales

AbeBooks order sales / Amazon ordered sales, same week.

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18Weekly16.0%Default (4-wk mean)14.1%

Default used: 14.1%

Cost rates, Aug and Sep

Each month's cost as a share of that month's item sales. The dashed line is the rate used: both months together.

Cost of books sold14.5%20.9%Marketplace fees24.4%25.3%Postage, labels and packaging19.5%19.9%Refunds and allowances3.8%5.0%Consignor share3.1%1.3%Shipping charged to buyers1.6%1.3%Aug 2026Sep 2026rate used (both months together)
The weeks in figures
WeekOffers SessionsSess./listingUnitsConversionPrice AmazoneBayeBay shareAbeBooksAbe share Total
Sep 27 to Oct 318,608821,97744.171,4170.172%$13.75$19,483$5372.8%$1,98310.2%$22,002
Oct 4 to Oct 1017,9521,021,03156.881,5590.153%$14.05$21,904$1,7157.8%$3,78017.3%$27,399
Oct 11 to Oct 1718,438907,42049.212,1300.235%$13.49$28,739$2,3928.3%$3,68312.8%$34,815
Oct 18 to Oct 2419,6141,238,60363.151,9430.157%$13.54$26,311$2,0057.6%$4,21316.0%$32,530
Default (4-week mean)53.350.179%$13.716.6%14.1%
The cost rates in figures, with the QuickBooks accounts
RateQuickBooks accountsAug $Sep $ Aug %Sep %Used
Gross item sales (the base)41010, 42010, 43010, 49010 + consignor payout added back$110,985.47$126,912.36
Cost of books sold51100, 51200, 51300, 51400, 55900$16,059.34$26,584.7014.47%20.95%17.93%
Marketplace fees53100, 53200, 53300, 53400, 53450, 53500, 53600$27,107.80$32,060.9624.42%25.26%24.87%
Postage, labels and packaging54100, 54200, 54300, 54600, 54700$21,630.03$25,285.6819.49%19.92%19.72%
Refunds and allowances41031, 41032, 41039, 42031, 42032, 42039, 43031, 43032, 43033, 49020$4,198.75$6,376.753.78%5.02%4.45%
Consignor shareconsignor payout entries (CSG-...) against 41010$3,494.84$1,605.943.15%1.27%2.14%
Shipping charged to buyers41020, 42020, 43020$1,732.63$1,684.721.56%1.33%1.44%

Links

The two places everything else lives.

Sources and method

What each figure rests on

ExportCoversFile
Amazon Business Report by weekWeeks to Oct 24DSK Amazon Business Report by Week (pulled Oct 26 2026).csv
Amazon all-listings report20,337 active on Oct 262026-10_Amazon_all-listings_pulled-2026-10-26.txt
eBay active listings6,743 on Oct 26 (for reference)2026-10_eBay_active-listings_pulled-2026-10-26.csv
eBay order exports5 files to Oct 24DSK Ebay All Transactions Sep 21-27 2026.csv; DSK Ebay All Transactions Sep 28-Oct 4 2026.csv; DSK Ebay All Transactions Oct 5-11 2026.csv; DSK Ebay All Transactions Oct 12-Oct 21 2026.csv; DSK Ebay All Transactions Oct 22-Oct 24 2026.csv
AbeBooks order exports5 files to Oct 24DSK AbeBooks Downloadable Report Sep 21-27 2026.csv; DSK AbeBooks Downloadable Report Sep 28-Oct 4 2026.csv; DSK AbeBooks Downloadable Report Oct 5-11 2026.csv; DSK AbeBooks Downloadable Report Oct 12-Oct 22 2026.csv; DSK AbeBooks Downloadable Report Oct 23-Oct 24 2026.csv
QuickBooks General LedgerExported 2026-10-27 16:31; Aug and Sep used2026-10_QBO_timothy-blake-wilkey_general-ledger_2026-08-to-2026-10.csv

Amazon sales

Listings x sessions per listing = sessions. Sessions x conversion = units. Units x price per unit = sales.

Other channels

eBay, AbeBooks and the smaller marketplaces are each a share of Amazon's sales, at their recent level. If one grows on its own, raise its share.

Gross profit

Item sales, plus shipping charged, less refunds and the consignor's share, less cost of books, marketplace fees and postage. Every rate is a share of item sales.

October equivalent and November forecast

Next week's rate over each month's exact days (31 and 30): each day is 1/7 of the week it falls in. October is an equivalent, a run rate rather than actuals, so it reads the same whichever day the page is refreshed. With net new listings a week, each week starts that many listings higher. Recurring costs are their full monthly amount in each month.

Break-even

The listings, at this week's traffic, conversion, price and rates, whose gross profit over the month covers the recurring costs.

Listings count

Sessions per listing is measured on Amazon's average offer count for each week. The starting count is the all-listings report's active rows, which run a little higher (books listed during the week).

Estimates, not results. The page applies recent averages to next week. Cost of books comes from the cost per book of the stock sold in Aug and Sep. A different mix of stock will move it.

Estimates. Every figure is an estimate built from the exports listed on the Reference tab, under Sources and method, as at the dates shown there. It isn't a result from the books.

Rounding. Figures are shown to the nearest dollar, so a column can add up a little away from its total.